PARIS — SpaceX’s Starlink constellation is dominating the global market for high-throughput satellite communications.
There is room, though, for competitors to claim a significant market share in much the same way Android challenges Apple in the global smartphone market, Novaspace Managing Director Nathan de Ruiter said Sept. 16 at the World Space Business Week conference here.
To succeed, challengers will need access to a variety of launch vehicles, software-defined satellites and virtual ground segments. Starlink competitors should also pool resources, de Ruiter said.
Access to Orbit
SpaceX dominates the launch market. In 2024, 69 satellite communications missions are scheduled for launch. SpaceX is expected to transport 61 of them.
“There’s a clear need to have more launch vehicles becoming operational,” de Ruiter said, citing Arianespace’s Ariane 6 and Blue Origin’s New Glenn as promising launch options.
Software-Defined Satellites
In the rapidly changing satellite communications market, software-defined satellites offer needed flexibility. To meet the needs of satellite service providers, software-defined satellites need to be priced competitively and delivered rapidly.
“But in reality, right now, prices have substantially increased and delivery times mount up to three to four years,” de Ruiter said. “It’s important to reverse that trend to make sure the satellite infrastructure network layer will become competitive.”
Ground Segment
Starlink competitors also need virtual ground segments featuring multi-orbit terminals, cloud integration and network management software built on open standards. With these ingredients satellite service providers can become part of the terrestrial telecommunications ecosystem.
Virtualization is “one of these key drivers” for the global ground segment market, which Novaspace expects to have a cumulative value of $75 billion from 2024 to 2030, de Ruiter said.
Pooling Resources
“It’s critically important to build partnerships to get true global service availability,” de Ruiter said.
Satellite communications providers often have trouble gaining market access. Even Starlink lacks access in some parts of the Middle East, Africa and Asia.
As a result, Starlink competitors should pool and share resources, de Ruiter said.
Market Dominance
Starlink operates around 6,000 satellites. The SpaceX service accounted for 70% of high-throughput satellite communications traffic in 2023, according to Novaspace. With more satellites coming, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk said Starlink will “probably deliver over 90% of all space-based internet traffic next year.”
Still, there’s plenty of room for market expansion.
Novaspace expects the satellite services market to grow from $19 billion in 2023 to $53 billion in 2033. Fixed broadband service will represent 70 percent of the growth, followed by maritime, aviation and terrestrial mobility and defense.
In contrast, the direct-to-home video market continues contract.
“We’ve already seen this decline in DTH in the more mature markets like North America and Europe,” de Ruiter said. “But we also see now stabilization in historic growth markets like Africa and India. So clearly this market continues to decline over the next decade.”
