In the high-stakes arena of military space technology, the U.S. Space Force’s Space Development Agency is attempting to rewrite the rulebook with a mesh network of interconnected satellites in low-Earth orbit capable of swiftly relaying critical data, including the detection of hypersonic missile threats.
But as the project enters its fourth year, SDA’s ambition is colliding with earthbound realities, exposing the challenges of rapid innovation in the aerospace sector.
Supply chain hiccups have emerged as a stumbling block for SDA’s constellation known as the Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture (PWSA). Manufacturers under contract to deliver satellites in two-year cycles have been hampered by shortages of propulsion systems, encryption payloads and, more recently, production issues with optical communications terminals.
The PWSA represents a bold departure from traditional defense acquisitions. With its emphasis on commercial off-the-shelf technology and fixed-price contracts, the initiative seeks to sidestep the cost overruns and delays that have plagued past space programs. At the same time, parts of the industrial base appear to be buckling under the strain of SDA’s aggressive timelines.
Industry observers can’t help but draw comparisons to SpaceX’s Starlink project, which continues to churn out satellites at a breakneck pace. Some question why SDA doesn’t simply piggyback on SpaceX’s proven production line. The answer lies in the technical requirements: SDA’s network operates at a higher orbit than Starlink, necessitating customized satellites that SpaceX was ultimately unwilling to produce in limited quantities.
A delicate dance
Despite these early challenges, SDA is plowing ahead, and it should be commended for that, said Todd Harrison, defense strategy and budget analyst at the American Enterprise Institute.
However, he points out a critical tension in SDA’s approach. While the goal is to leverage commercial production lines, the agency may have overreached in its technical specifications and schedule demands for a supplier base accustomed to producing handfuls of satellites, not the hundreds envisioned for the PWSA.
“That’s where we get into the classic problem of the military coming up with requirements for products that are not truly commercial,” Harrison said.
“SDA has done far better than any of the other space acquisitions,” Harrison insisted, “But I think that there are some lessons learned here that maybe they over-specified the system in a way that took too much of the trade space away.”
SDA says it is actively working with prime contractors to address supply issues. But untangling the web of production delays and technical hurdles will take time — a luxury the agency may not have in the face of program deadlines and congressional scrutiny.
The road ahead
Satellites for SDA’s Tranche 1 phase of the constellation were originally slated to launch this fall and that now seems unlikely. As the PWSA moves forward, a crucial indicator will be not just the pace of launches but whether more commercial vendors start to bid for future tranches of the constellation, noted Harrison.
“If only defense prime contractors bid for these tranches, then that’s a bad sign that they’re not broadening the industrial base,” he commented.
Andrew Berglund, policy analyst at the Aerospace Center for Space Policy and Strategy, provided additional insight into the challenges ahead. In a recent white paper, Berglund highlights the inherent tension between successful prime contractors and SDA’s goals. “There will be an inherent tension between the most successful primes trying to maximize their share of the architecture and SDA trying to sustain a dynamic, competitive market,” he observed.
Berglund also raised the question of the PWSA’s demanding requirements. “There is no precedent for a DoD space system that requires such seamless operational integration between so many vendors,” he noted. “Demonstrating and sustaining that integration is the biggest test of industry’s support for SDA’s goals and strategy.”
He predicts supply chain challenges will persist. “Beyond the temporary disruptions tied to the pandemic, SDA’s launch-on-schedule approach constrains the amount of time vendors have to get parts and components if they wait until after contract award,” he added.
“Whether vendors are willing to… stockpile parts in advance will depend on their confidence in winning an award,” said Berglund. “We will see whether approaches like vertical integration provide an advantage, which may reduce the number of competitive primes. But the most persistent challenges will likely relate to traditional supply chain risks.”
This article first appeared in the “On National Security” commentary feature in the September 2024 issue of SpaceNews Magazine
