BETHESDA, Md. — The U.S. government’s support for the commercial remote sensing satellite industry is at a critical juncture amid growing military demand for real-time intelligence, industry experts said Aug. 27.
The commercial remote sensing satellite industry is expanding, but it’s still not equipped to meet evolving U.S. military needs for tactical intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR), said David Gauthier, former head of commercial operations at the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA).
Tactical ISR refers to the immediate collection and analysis of data to inform military operations on the battlefield. This intelligence is crucial for decision making during to dynamic situations.
Speaking at the AFCEA-INSA Intelligence and National Security Summit, Gauthier, who is chief strategy officer of the consulting firm GXO Inc., said the Pentagon could find itself at a disadvantage against adversaries unless it has access to satellites capable of real-time monitoring.
The U.S. government owns and operates its own ISR satellites, he said, but the conflict in Ukraine has underscored the strategic importance of commercial remote sensing satellites, showcasing their ability to provide unclassified and easily shareable intelligence. The war has been described as one of the most documented conflicts in history, largely due to the continuous flow of satellite data that has shaped public perception and countered misinformation.
Despite these advancements, Gauthier argued, the commercial satellite industry has to innovate further to meet the U.S. military’s needs for continuous monitoring of military activity. He emphasized the necessity of integrating “virtual constellations” of Earth observation (EO), infrared (IR), synthetic aperture radar (SAR), and radio frequency (RF) systems to achieve more precise intelligence.
The conflict has provided a taste of what commercial imaging satellites can do, but the industry needs to keep modernizing to “help warfighters make decisions faster,” he said. For example, satellites should have laser crosslinks to move more data quicker than is done today. He emphasized that today’s systems are “still not timely enough, and we need to get faster.”
The National Reconnaissance Office (NRO), which is responsible for acquiring commercial imagery for the U.S. government, is currently investing about $4 billion over 10 years in commercial electro-optical imagery. Gauthier argues that this funding is insufficient to ensure U.S. competitiveness in the sector. He suggested that the budget should be closer to $40 billion to adequately support the industry and its integration into military operations.
“Four billion dollars sounds like a lot. But spread over a decade, it is less per year than what we spent on imagery in 2011. We’ve gone backwards,” said Gauthier.
China’s rapid growth
Kari Bingen, director of the Aerospace Security Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, highlighted growing concerns in the Department of Defense regarding China’s rapid deployment of ISR satellites. U.S. officials report that China’s surveillance satellites have tripled in number since 2018, with its fleet now exceeding 350 satellites.
China’s remote-sensing satellites are strategically designed to support military operations, with a particular focus on the Indo-Pacific region, Bingen explained. These satellites could provide China with critical reconnaissance capabilities to monitor U.S. military movements.
Echoing Gauthier’s sentiments, Bingen said the U.S. government “needs to incentivize integration of commercial remote sensing capabilities into the military ISR architecture.”
Global competition
A 2021 assessment conducted by the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, dubbed the “commercial remote sensing olympics,” revealed that U.S. firms only secured gold in three out of nine categories. Foreign companies like Finland’s Iceye and various Chinese satellite operators demonstrated significant capabilities, particularly in SAR technologies and revisit rates.
Gauthier said he is working with several think tanks on an assessment of global remote sensing capabilities that will be the 2024 version of the remote sensing olympics. The results of the evaluation are expected to be released in the coming weeks, promising fresh insights into the current state of the industry.
“What was true in 2021 is still true today,” he said. The U.S. has a dominant industry, “but due to some stagnant elements of our bureaucracy, the U.S. lead is fading in some areas.”
Bureaucratic hurdles
The debate over the U.S. government’s support for commercial remote sensing is further complicated by internal disagreements regarding agencies’ responsibilities for tactical ISR imagery.
Todd Harrison, defense budget and strategy analyst at the American Enterprise Institute, said the Space Force, the NRO, and NGA have overlapping roles in tactical ISR and there is a lack of clarity about who has the job. “Whoever gets the job should get the funding, and you need a budget line for the procurement of commercial space-based surveillance products. That’s how you signal to the industry you’re serious,” Harrison told SpaceNews.
While the Space Force has awarded some contracts to commercial firms using congressional add-ons to the budget, long-term funding is uncertain and that hampers the industry’s ability to scale and innovate, said Harrison. The NRO’s procurement process, which focuses primarily on strategic intelligence, leaves a tactical need unmet, he said, which raises concerns about the U.S. military’s ability to leverage commercial capabilities effectively.
