Teal Group today
announced publication of its new Worldwide Mission Model: 2001-2010 at the US
Space Foundation’s 17th Annual National Space Symposium.
The study counts a
total of 2,160 payloads proposed for launch to Earth orbit during the next
10 years, up slightly from last year’s total of 2,147 payloads for 2000-2009.

The Model breaks out the data by payload type, mass and orbit; customer
region; prime contractor; and launch vehicle program.
It provides a framework
from which to make projections about the future of space, based on the
relatively “hard information” available on a wide range of satellites,
capsules, spacecraft, and manned missions.

“The goal of this exercise is to provide a big picture of the kind of
payloads that are either under development or planned, and then affix a
numerical value to it in order to give a sense of size to the possible
market,” says Marco Caceres, lead analyst for Teal Group’s World Space Systems
Briefing, the 1,400-page, monthly-updated competitive intelligence service in
which the Model is published.
(For more information on the service, call
703-573-5374, e-mail dcornell@tealgroup.com or fax 703-573-0559).

“The true value of the Model, however, lies less in the topline number,
and more in the story that it tells about the space market,” notes Caceres.
“That’s why we break down the number into several data fields so that it
starts to actually mean something from a business standpoint.”

About one-third of the payloads are of US origin.
Within the US share,
roughly half of the payloads belong to government agencies and the other half
to commercial ventures.
Approximately 44% of the payloads are commercial
communications satellites, compared to 64% in last year’s Model.
During the
past year, a number of programs that had proposed to build and launch dozens
of satellites have changed their strategic plans, leading to a 31% decline in
the number of commercial communications satellites in the current Model.

The big difference between this year and last year lies in the 68%
increase in the number of payloads weighing between 0.1 kilograms and
100 kilograms.
This is a result of hundreds of new satellites such as the US
National Reconnaissance Office’s (NRO) proposed 100-kg Techsat21s, Satellite
Observing Systems’ 80-kg GANDERS, NASA’s 10-kg MCM’s (Magnetosphere
Constellation Mission), and the University of Arizona’s 1-kg CubeSats.

By far, the most common orbit for payloads is low Earth orbit (LEO).
least 67% of the total payloads are LEOs destined for altitudes of around
1,000 kilometers.
The percentage is higher than last year’s 63%.

“Most of the commercial mobile communications satellites and some of the
broadbands that we deleted from the Model were LEOs,” notes Caceres.
“Had it
not been for all the new microsatellites, nanosatellites, and picosatellites
that were added, the LEOs would have dropped to about 50% of the total

The Model identifies 150 payload customers in some 50 countries, as well
as dozens of satellite manufacturers and launch services companies.
Of the
top 21 prime contractors, 11 of them are from the US, and they account for at
least 25% of all the payloads.
Judging by the payloads that do not yet have a
designated prime contractor, the study estimates that US primes such as
Boeing, Space Systems/Loral, Lockheed Martin, Orbital Sciences, and others
could easily account for 75% of the payloads.

The Model shows a more balanced payload break out among launch services
companies, with the top 10 launch programs (by payload count) showing a mix of
European, US, Russian, Ukrainian, Chinese, Japanese, and Indian ownership.
The programs, which include Ariane, Delta, Space Shuttle, Rockot, Tsyklon,
Cosmos, Atlas, H-2, Long March, and Dnepr account for 79% of the payloads
which have a designated launcher.

Caceres cautions against viewing the Model as a forecast.
“The number
2,160 is not what we believe will happen, but rather a starting point for
analyzing what could happen”, he says.
“If you really need a forecast
regarding the satellites that are going to be launched during the next
10 years, then pick a nice round number like 1,000.
That’s probably about
right, assuming the market is not flooded by thousands of nanosats in the next
few years.”

                      Total Proposed Payloads Worldwide

    (in units)  2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010  Total

    Payloads     226  311  293  194  310  282  181  131  189   43  2,160

Teal Group Corp. is an aerospace and defense consulting firm which
provides market intelligence to government and industry.
It is based in
Fairfax, Virginia.