Teal Group today
announced publication of its new Worldwide Mission Model: 2000-2009 at the US
Space Foundation’s 16th Annual National Space Symposium. The study counts a
total of 2,147 payloads proposed for launch to Earth orbit during the next 10
years, up slightly from last year’s total of 2,123 payloads for 1999-2008.
The Model breaks outs the data by customer region; payload type, mass and
orbit; prime contractor, and launch vehicle.
It provides a framework from
which to make projections about the future of space based on the relatively
“hard information” available on a wide range of payloads, including
satellites, microgravity experiments capsules, and manned missions.
It is a
snapshot of what has been proposed for construction and launch as of this
writing.
“The first time we did our Model back in 1992, we counted 656 proposed
payloads for the 1993-2002 timeframe,” says Marco Caceres, lead analyst for
Teal Group’s World Space Systems Briefing, the 1,400-page, monthly-updated
competitive intelligence service in which the Model is published (for more
information on the service, call 703-573-5374 or fax 703-573-0559).
“Now,
eight years later we observe that the number of payloads has more than
tripled.”
More than 50% of the payloads are of US origin.
Of those, roughly 75%
belong to commercial ventures and 25% to government agencies.
Approximately
65% of the payloads are commercial communications satellites. For the payloads
which have a designated mass, some 57% of them can be classified as small
satellites or smaller, weighing between 1 kilogram and 1,000 kilograms, while
60% of them are destined for low Earth orbit (LEO) — the vast majority to
altitudes of between 1,000 kilometers and 1,500 kilometers.
The Model identifies more than 70 different prime contractors. According
to the study, the top 20 primes account for 62% of the total payloads.
The
top five primes-Hughes Space and Communications, Space Systems/Loral, Alcatel
Space Industries, Motorola Space and Systems Technology, and Orbital Sciences-
alone account for 33%.
The Model also identifies more than 30 launch vehicle
programs. Of the total payloads, only about 46% have a designated launcher.
The top five launch vehicle programs — Arianespace’s Ariane, Boeing’s Delta,
International Launch Services’ Proton, NASA’s Space Shuttle, and Eurockot
Launch Services’ Rockot — account for 64% of the assigned payloads.
“I think the best thing that can be said about the number 2,147 is that it
is a reference point,” says Caceres.
“When people in the space industry want
to know how many satellites will be built and launched during the next 10
years, they can at least say with some degree of comfort, ‘Well, it’s probably
going to be more than 1,000 and less than 5,000’, although I must say that
something drastic would have to occur within the industry for us to see
anywhere near 5,000 payloads through 2009.”
Caceres notes, “The only factor
that could create such a market would be an exponential drop in launch service
costs, and we do not foresee this happening anytime soon, certainly not until
reusable launch vehicle companies start to become serious players.”
Teal Group Corp. is an aerospace and defense consulting firm which
provides market intelligence to government and industry.
It is based in
Fairfax, Virginia.
