Coinciding with the Satellite 2015 Conference & Exhibition held at the Walter E. Washington Convention Center in Washington, DC during March 16-19, 2015, Teal Group space analysts have identified 4,607 space payloads proposed to be built and launched to earth or deep space orbits between 2015 and 2034. They estimate the value of these satellites and other space payloads at more than $240 billion.
The payload count for 2015-2034 reflects a 29% increase compared to the 3,280 payloads identified last year for 2014-2033 and 31% more than the 3,164 payloads in 2013 for the period 2013-2032. So the trend is clearly upward.
Teal analysts identify 695 payloads “proposed” for launch in 2015, followed by 579 in 2016, 390 in 2017, 297 in 2018, 513 in 2019, 523 in 2020, 411 in 2021, 159 in 2022, 90 in 2023, and 98 in 2024.
“Remember, these numbers do not represent a forecast of what is to come, but rather a snapshot of what we know is being proposed to be built and launched,” said Teal Group senior space analyst Marco Cáceres. “That’s why the numbers appear somewhat disjointed. They’re higher in the near-term, because companies and governments that plan to launch satellites, probes, and capsules generally aim to do so within the next few years, and so we have more hard information with which to work. The higher numbers during 2019-2021 mainly reflect hundreds of small broadband communications satellites being proposed by companies such as OneWeb and SpaceX,” added Cáceres.
Teal Group publishes its detailed space payload numbers in a daily-updated online spreadsheet known as the Worldwide Mission Model Online. (Contact regional representatives at www.tealgroup.com)
In their latest update by spacecraft type, Teal analysts classified 2,587 of the payloads as commercial, 1,071 as civil, 606 as military, and 343 as university and non-profit. “Most of the commercial spacecraft are for communications, imaging, or navigation applications,” said Cáceres. “Civil and military are a wider mix of scientific, communications, Earth imaging, navigation, early-warning, exploration, technology development, crew transport, and cargo resupply.”
Of the proposed payloads, more than three-quarters have a mass of less than 1,500 kg. “Most of these spacecraft are low Earth orbit (LEO) mobile and broadband communications satellites, medium Earth orbit (MEO) navigation satellites, and LEO university technology and scientific research satellites.”
More than three-quarters of the payloads are being proposed by government agencies, companies, universities, and organizations in the United States, Europe, and Russia. “No surprise there,” notes Cáceres. “But the fastest growing region is Asia and the Pacific Rim, especially China and India…mainly because of their extremely ambitious national space programs and overall general consumer demand for commercial satellite services.”
Teal Group is an aerospace and defense consultancy based in Fairfax, Virginia, USA. It provides competitive market intelligence to industry and government worldwide.
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