:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Feb 22 2255 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
: : : : : : : : : : CORRECTED COPY : : : : : : : : : :
SDF NUMBER 053 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 22 FEB 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  21/2100Z
TO 22/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE.  THREE M1 X-RAY EVENTS
OCCURRED FROM REGION 8869 (S18W87).  THEY WERE:  AN M1/2B AT
21/2319Z, AN M1/SF AT 22/0856Z, AND AN M1/SF AT 22/1133Z.  SEVERAL
MINOR C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS OCCURRED WITH NO OPTICAL CORRELATION.
REGION 8882 (S16E57) DISPLAYED MODERATE GROWTH IN BOTH AREA AND SPOT
NUMBER DURING THE PERIOD.  THE PENTICTON 10.7 CENTIMETER FLUX IS
ESTIMATED TODAY DUE TO ENHANCED VALUES.  NEW REGION 8883 (N13E60)
WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.  THE POSSIBLITY OF M-CLASS LEVEL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO DECREASE AS REGION 8869 ROTATES OVER THE WEST LIMB.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD, BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE IN THE LAST HALF OF THE
PERIOD TO DUE THE EFFECTS OF A RETURNING HIGH SPEED CORONAL HOLE
STREAM.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 23 FEB-25 FEB
CLASS M    30/25/25
CLASS X    05/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           22 FEB 164
PREDICTED   23 FEB-25 FEB  145/135/130
90 DAY MEAN        22 FEB 164
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 FEB  015/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 FEB  010/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 FEB-25 FEB  010/012-015/015-015/023
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 23 FEB-25 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/25/25
MINOR STORM           05/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/35/35
MINOR STORM           10/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05