:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Mar 09 0238 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 068 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 08 MAR 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  07/2100Z
TO 08/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT MODERATE LEVELS. AN
IMPULSIVE, OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED M1 X-RAY FLARE OCCURRED AT
08/0200UT. OTHERWISE, OCCASIONAL C-CLASS FLARES WERE OBSERVED.
REGION 8891 (S16W83) SHOWED OCCASIONAL BRIGHT SURGING AND PRODUCED
ISOLATED C-CLASS SUBFLARES AS IT BEGAN TO ROTATE OUT OF VIEW. REGION
8898 (S13W06) REMAINED A MODERATE-SIZED, MIXED-POLARITY REGION, BUT
WAS STABLE DURING THE PERIOD. NEW REGIONS 8904 (N26W06), 8905
(S06E22), 8906 (S17E68), AND 8907 (S17E22) WERE NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT MODERATE LEVELS. REGIONS 8891, 8898, AND 8906 APPEAR CAPABLE OF
ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE PRODUCTION.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 07/2100Z TO 08/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT UNSETTLED LEVELS DURING MOST OF THE
PERIOD WITH BRIEF ACTIVE INTERVALS DETECTED AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT MOSTLY UNSETTLED LEVELS DURING THE FIRST TWO DAYS
WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS. FIELD ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ON DAY THREE. THE
GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT MAY REACH
HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 09 MAR-11 MAR
CLASS M    60/60/60
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           08 MAR 215
PREDICTED   09 MAR-11 MAR  215/205/205
90 DAY MEAN        08 MAR 173
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 MAR  010/016
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 MAR  013/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 MAR-11 MAR  012/010-012/008-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 09 MAR-11 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/25
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05