Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 May 05 2210 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 126 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 05 MAY 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  04/2100Z
TO 05/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE.  A LONG DURATION M1 X-RAY
EVENT OCCURRED AT 05/1621Z WITH NO OPTICAL CORRELATION.  IMAGERY
FROM THE SOHO/LASCO SPACECRAFT INDICATED A CORONAL MASS EJECTION
(CME) OCCURRED BEHIND THE SOUTHWEST LIMB IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS
EVENT.  THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO HAVE ERUPTED FROM REGION 8970,
NOW AT APPROXIMATELY S14W120.  AN ASSOCIATED  WEAK CONTINUUM WAS
ALSO REPORTED.  OTHERWISE, ONLY A COUPLE MINOR C-CLASS EVENTS WERE
OBSERVED.  NO SIGNIFICANT GROWTH OR DECAY WAS NOTED IN THE REGIONS
ON THE DISK.  NEW REGIONS 8984 (S16E13), 8985 (N13E51), AND 8986
(S19E45) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH TWO ISOLATED
PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS OBSERVED AT 05/0600-0900Z AND
05/1500-1800Z.  THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS ENHANCED DURING PART OF THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ACTIVE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 06 MAY-08 MAY
CLASS M    20/20/25
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           05 MAY 130
PREDICTED   06 MAY-08 MAY  130/135/145
90 DAY MEAN        05 MAY 188
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 MAY  005/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 MAY  012/014
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 MAY-08 MAY  015/014-012/012-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 06 MAY-08 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/25
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/35/30
MINOR STORM           15/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01