Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 May 04 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 125 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 04 MAY 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  03/2100Z
TO 04/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH.  REGION 8970 (S14W105), FROM
BEHIND THE SOUTHWEST LIMB, PRODUCED AN M6 X-RAY EVENT AT 04/1108Z
WITH NO OPTICAL CORRELATION.  EARLIER, AT 03/2310Z, REGION 8970
PRODUCED AN M1 X-RAY EVENT WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOOP PROMINENCE
SYSTEM.  SOME DECAY WAS OBSERVED IN REGION 8980 (S15W08), WHILE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE SEEN IN REGION 8981 (S22W10).  NEW REGION
8983 (N25E58) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.  THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS ENHANCED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THE FIRST DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON THE SECOND AND THIRD DAY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 05 MAY-07 MAY
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           04 MAY 135
PREDICTED   05 MAY-07 MAY  130/130/135
90 DAY MEAN        04 MAY 189
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 MAY  013/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 MAY  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 MAY-07 MAY  010/010-015/015-012/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 05 MAY-07 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/30/30
MINOR STORM           05/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/35/40
MINOR STORM           10/10/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01