:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Mar 03 2210 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 063 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 03 MAR 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  02/2100Z
TO 03/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8886 (S12W87)
PRODUCED TODAY'S LARGEST EVENT, AN M4/SN AT 1046Z. THE REGION
EXHIBITED BRIGHT PLAGE WITH FREQUENT FLUCTUATIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AS IT APPROACHED THE WEST LIMB. REGION 8882 (S15W70) ALSO PRODUCED
AN M-CLASS EVENT: AN M3/1B AT 0214Z WHICH WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A TYPE
IV RADIO SWEEP EVENT. THIS REGION IS CURRENTLY THE LARGEST ON THE
DISK, BUT WAS SHOWING SOME EARLY INDICATORS OF DECAY NEAR DAY'S END.
REGION 8891 (S15W17) IS ALSO LARGE BUT WAS STABLE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. A FAINT CME COULD BE OBSERVED WITH THE SOHO DATA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LIMB, BEGINNING AT 0454Z. A SUBSEQUENT BRIGHT, LARGE CME
WAS OBSERVED ON THE SOUTHEAST LIMB BEGINNING AT 0654Z. NEITHER OF
THESE CME'S HAD AN OBVIOUS ASSOCIATED COUNTERPART ON THE DISK,
IMPLYING THAT THEY BOTH ORIGINATED FROM BEHIND THE SOLAR LIMB.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
MAJOR FLARE OR PROTON PRODUCING FLARE FROM REGION 8882, OR POSSIBLY
REGIONS 8886 OR 8891.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. AN
INCREASE IN ACTIVITY LEVELS MAY OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO THE POSSIBILITY
OF A GLANCING BLOW FROM RECENT CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE M6 AND X1 FLARES OF 02 MARCH. A DIRECT HIT IS NOT LIKELY
SINCE NEITHER OF THESE CME'S WERE OBSERVED AS HALO CME'S AND ARE NOT
THOUGHT TO BE DIRECTED TOWARDS THE EARTH.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 04 MAR-06 MAR
CLASS M    65/65/65
CLASS X    20/20/20
PROTON     20/20/20
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           03 MAR 204
PREDICTED   04 MAR-06 MAR  200/195/190
90 DAY MEAN        03 MAR 169
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 MAR  007/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 MAR  005/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 MAR-06 MAR  015/028-015/025-010/020
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 04 MAR-06 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/20
MINOR STORM           15/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/25
MINOR STORM           15/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/10/05