Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Apr 29 2210 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 120 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 29 APR 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  28/2100Z
TO 29/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8970 (S15W36) PRODUCED
TWO MINOR C-CLASS FLARES DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8976 (S11W14)
PRODUCED A LONG DURATION C3/SF AT 29/1203UT, THIS WAS THE LARGEST
EVENT NOTED TODAY. REGION 8971(N18W36) PRODUCED AN OPTICAL SUBFLARE
AT 29/1710UT. OTHER THAN THE ACTIVITY DESCRIBED ABOVE, THE SUN WAS
FAIRLY QUIET AND STABLE DURING THE PERIOD.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO BE LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 28/2100Z TO 29/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 30 APR-02 MAY
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           29 APR 175
PREDICTED   30 APR-02 MAY  175/175/180
90 DAY MEAN        29 APR 189
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 APR  011/017
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 APR  012/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 APR-02 MAY  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 30 APR-02 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/30
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01