:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Mar 21 2229 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 081 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 21 MAR 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  20/2100Z
TO 21/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. AN UNOBSERVED M1 X-RAY
EVENT OCCURRED AT 1424Z, WITH ASSOCIATED TYPE II SWEEP. FLARE
ACTIVITY WAS SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED, AS MOST OF THE DISK REGIONS WERE
EITHER STABLE OR DECAYING. REGION 8910 (N12W49) IS STILL DOMINANT IN
WHITE LIGHT AND H-ALPHA. NEWLY NUMBERED REGION 8922 (N14E57) ROTATED
FULLY INTO VIEW.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 8910 IS THE BEST CANDIDATE FOR ISOLATED M-CLASS
FLARES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOMEWHAT ELEVATED ACTIVITY VERY LATE IN THE INTERVAL,
WHEN A CORONAL HOLE ROTATES TO A POTENTIALLY GEO-EFFECTIVE POSITION.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 22 MAR-24 MAR
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           21 MAR 231
PREDICTED   22 MAR-24 MAR  235/240/245
90 DAY MEAN        21 MAR 175
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 MAR  005/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 MAR  003/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 MAR-24 MAR  010/015-010/010-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 22 MAR-24 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/20
MINOR STORM           01/01/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/30
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01