:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Mar 14 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 074 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 14 MAR 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  13/2100Z
TO 14/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL LOW C-CLASS X-RAY
FLARES OCCURRED PRIMARILY IN REGION 8906 (S16W09). THIS REGION IS
NOW A LARGE AND MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX SPOT GROUP EXCEEDING 900
MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA. PARTICULARLY STRONG MAGNETIC
GRADIENTS EXIST WITHIN COMPLEX DELTA CONFIGURATIONS AND SEVERAL NEW
SPOTS DEVELOPED LATE IN THE PERIOD. REGION 8910 (N10E43) PRODUCED
OCCASIONAL MINOR C-CLASS EVENTS. THIS REGION EXHIBITED CONSIDERABLE
GROWTH SINCE YESTERDAY AND HAS DEVELOPED MINOR MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY.
A 17 DEGREE FILAMENT ERUPTED FROM NEAR S34E38 AT 14/0348Z. THREE NEW
REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY - REGION 8911 (N11W43), 8912 (N15W02),
AND 8913 (S14E66). REMAINING REGIONS WERE MOSTLY STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH
MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS. COMPLEX REGION 8906 WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
OCCASIONAL M-CLASS ACTIVITY, AND HAS POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR FLARE.
REGION 8910 WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING C-CLASS X-RAY ACTIVITY WITH THE
SMALL CHANCE OF AN M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET WITH AN ISOLATED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 14/09 - 14/12Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT QUIET LEVELS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 15 MAR-17 MAR
CLASS M    75/75/75
CLASS X    40/40/40
PROTON     20/20/20
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           14 MAR 183
PREDICTED   15 MAR-17 MAR  175/175/170
90 DAY MEAN        14 MAR 175
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 MAR  002/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 MAR  005/006
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 MAR-17 MAR  005/008-005/008-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 15 MAR-17 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/20
MINOR STORM           01/01/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/30
MINOR STORM           05/05/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01