:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Mar 07 2346 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 067 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 07 MAR 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  06/2100Z
TO 07/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED TO MODERATE LEVELS. AN M1/1F
FLARE OCCURRED AT 07/1607UT FROM AN AS YET UNNUMBERED REGION
ROTATING INTO VIEW NEAR SE22. AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED M1 OCCURRED
AT 07/1950UT. MINOR SPOT DEVELOPMENT WAS REPORTED WITHIN REGION 8900
(S16W26), WHICH CONTINUED TO DISPLAY A MIXED-POLARITY STRUCTURE.
HOWEVER, THE REGION WAS STABLE DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE
REMAINING REGIONS WERE STABLE. NEW REGION 8903 WAS ASSIGNED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL M-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 06/2100Z TO 07/2100Z:
FIELD ACTIVITY RANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. HOWEVER, BRIEF
ACTIVE PERIODS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 08 MAR-10 MAR
CLASS M    50/50/45
CLASS X    10/10/05
PROTON     10/10/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           07 MAR 222
PREDICTED   08 MAR-10 MAR  220/215/200
90 DAY MEAN        07 MAR 172
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 MAR  008/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 MAR  015/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 MAR-10 MAR  008/010-010/010-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 08 MAR-10 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/30
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05