:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Feb 26 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 057 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Feb 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  An optically uncorrelated C1
x-ray flare occurred at 26/0741 UTC.  The probable source for this
event was observed by SOHO/LASCO from behind the west limb.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.  An isolated period of
active conditions occurred at 26/1800 UTC.  A slight proton
enhancement was observed which was probably associated with the
event which occurred behind the limb earlier today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 27 Feb-01 Mar
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Feb 135
Predicted   27 Feb-01 Mar  135/135/140
90 Day Mean        26 Feb 164
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Feb  001/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Feb  008/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Feb-01 Mar  008/008-008/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Feb-01 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01