Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Nov, 09 Nov, 10 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 581 km/s at 06/2112Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 07/0740Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 07/1031Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2058 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Nov) and quiet levels on days two and three (09 Nov, 10 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Nov 088
Predicted 08 Nov-10 Nov 085/082/082
90 Day Mean 07 Nov 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov 013/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov 008/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/10/10