Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 May, 08 May, 09 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 386 km/s at 06/0149Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 06/0325Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 06/2002Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 613 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (07 May, 08 May, 09 May).
III. Event probabilities 07 May-09 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 May 073
Predicted 07 May-09 May 073/073/073
90 Day Mean 06 May 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 May 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 May 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May 006/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May-09 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
