Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Nov, 02 Nov, 03 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 360 km/s at 31/2007Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 30/2333Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 31/1331Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (01 Nov, 02 Nov) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (03 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Oct 068
Predicted 01 Nov-03 Nov 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 31 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Oct 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov 005/005-006/005-016/023
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/35
Minor Storm 01/05/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 10/15/45
