Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 31 October 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Nov, 02 Nov, 03 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 360 km/s at 31/2007Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 30/2333Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 31/1331Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (01 Nov, 02 Nov) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (03 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Oct 068
Predicted   01 Nov-03 Nov 069/069/069
90 Day Mean        31 Oct 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Oct  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov  005/005-006/005-016/023

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/35
Minor Storm           01/05/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    10/15/45