Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 46 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (16 Feb, 17 Feb) and expected to be very low on day three (18 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 517 km/s at 14/2347Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 15/1545Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 15/1512Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (16 Feb), quiet to active levels on day two (17 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (18 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Feb 073
Predicted 16 Feb-18 Feb 071/070/069
90 Day Mean 15 Feb 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb 011/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb 014/018-010/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/25
Minor Storm 25/15/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 55/40/30
