Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 May 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (15 May, 16 May, 17 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 354 km/s at 14/2055Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 14/1530Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 14/1122Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 429 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 May), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (16 May) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (17 May).

III.  Event probabilities 15 May-17 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 May 071
Predicted   15 May-17 May 072/072/074
90 Day Mean        14 May 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 May  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May  009/012-017/018-021/032

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May-17 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/40/35
Minor Storm           05/15/40
Major-severe storm    01/01/15
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/40/20