Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (11 Dec, 12 Dec, 13 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 340 km/s at 09/2102Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 10/1805Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 10/1111Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2745 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (11 Dec, 12 Dec, 13 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Dec 076
Predicted 11 Dec-13 Dec 076/076/078
90 Day Mean 10 Dec 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Dec 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec 008/010-007/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 30/30/30