Calvert Sees Bright Future for Personal Spaceflight in the Second Space Age
WASHINGTON, D.C. – Burt Rutan, the pioneering designer of SpaceShipOne, joined the President of Virgin Galactic and other leaders in the commercial space industry in testifying before the House Subcommittee on Space and Aeronautics today on the future of the commercial space market.
The witnesses discussed the future markets for the commercial space industry, including the nascent human spaceflight enterprise, and suggested ways in which the federal government could further enable the industry’s growth.
Subcommittee Chairman Ken Calvert (R-CA) said, “As we enter the Second Space Age, I anticipate entrepreneurs and commercial ventures will create many of the new rules and tools that will make personal space flight and low cost launch as ubiquitous as commercial flight is today.”
Scaled Composites President Burt Rutan, the pioneering designer of SpaceShipOne, the first private manned craft to reach space, testified that two types of markets will likely emerge for the commercial human spaceflight industry. The first he described as one fraught with risk, in which courageous adventure seekers pay large sums of money for flights; a scenario he described as being akin to treks to the summit of Mount Everest.
The second scenario, he said, is one “in which the players do not find the dangers of space flight acceptable and recognize that extensive improvements in safety are more important than extensive improvements in affordability. Those that attack the problem from this viewpoint will be faced with a much greater technical challenge: the need for new innovations and breakthroughs. If successful, however, they will enjoy an enormous market, not one that is limited to servicing only a few courageous adventurers.” While Rutan was unable to discuss the specific future plans for his company, he did tell the Subcommittee, “I can assure you that they do not involve a ‘scenario one’ approach.”
Just prior to Rutan’s successful X-Prize flights last September, Sir Richard Branson of the Virgin group announced the creation of Virgin Galactic, which will offer commercial flights to space. Virgin Galactic President Will Whitehorn said the company intends to purchase at least five vehicles from Rutan – which they have dubbed SpaceShipTwo – and plans to be operational by the end of the decade. “We are not doing this as a rich billionaire’s tour adventure…or as just a brand representation. We are doing this to create a profitable and viable business,” Mr. Whitehorn said. “We believe within five years [or operation] we can create a viable business that will be profitable, and that will allow us to bring down the cost of personal spaceflight to levels which will be affordable across the board in the United States and around the world.”
Explaining the size of Virgin Galactic’s potential market, Mr. Whitehorn said that the company has received more than 29,000 applications to fly since its announced formation last fall. “That is 29,000 people who said they are willing to pay a deposit of up to $20,000 for spaceflights within a range of prices of up to $200,000. We’ve also had 100 people who have actually signed ‘terms and conditions’ with us now to pay the full cost of $200,000 to fly on SpaceShipTwo.”
A second panel of witnesses testified on the future markets of the wider commercial space industry, including launch vehicles and satellites. The witnesses were: Mr. Elon Musk, Chairman and CEO, Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX); Mr. John Vinter, Chairman, International Space Brokers (ISB); Mr. Wolfgang Demisch, President, Demisch Associates, LLC; and Dr. Molly Macauley, Senior Fellow and Director, Academic Programs, Resources for the Future.
Discussing his company’s business plan, Mr. Musk said, “SpaceX is dedicated to improving the reliability and cost of access to space for the greater purpose of helping us become a true space-faring civilization.” He noted that his company’s Falcon I rocket has the “lowest cost per flight in the world for a production rocket,” and he said his Falcon V was rated as the most reliable rocket, outperforming the Boeing Delta IV and the Lockheed Atlas V, which currently are the most commonly used heavy-lift rockets.
Musk said the federal government could help the nascent commercial space industry by offering prizes for new technologies and by purchasing launches from new companies like his. He said the Department of Defense has purchased two of SpaceX’s four launches to date. “Regrettably, however, NASA has not yet procured a launch and has provided less financial support than the Malaysian Space Agency, which has bought and paid for a flight on Falcon I,” he said.
A major issue facing companies like SpaceX is ensuring financial protection in the event of a catastrophic mishap. International Space Brokers insures nine of the world’s twenty satellite companies and is the only insurance broker focused exclusively on the space industry. “We address satellite insurance and risk management needs from ‘cradle to grave,'” said ISB Chairman Vinter. “For us, commercial space begins with the arrival of people or equipment at the various launch sites, continues through launch, deployment, testing, and on-orbit operations of satellites through the end of their expected lives.”
Mr. Demish, an aerospace financial analyst, said the large costs associated with space access will limit the industry’s growth. “Access to space will stay expensive until we can achieve something like the proposed space elevator that Arthur C. Clarke, among others, has written about,” Demish testified. “In the interim, perhaps for the next two or three decades, it will remain uneconomical to send anything other than information up into or back down from space. This suggests that, absent some astonishingly serendipitous discovery, a cancer cure for instance, entry into space will grow about in line with the general economy, rather than some multiple thereof.”
Regarding the role of the federal government in enabling the growth of the commercial space sector, Dr. Macauley said, “My overall observation is that U.S. commercial space policy to date has been appropriately supportive of U.S. industry and sets a good precedent for the future. The interests of the taxpayer and industry are most likely to flourish mutually by way of a conservative approach to legislative and regulatory intervention, coupled with an innovative, incentive-oriented philosophy. I also recommend the usefulness of demonstration or pathfinder, experimental approaches to policy.”
