:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Apr 19 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 110 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 19 APR 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  18/2100Z
TO 19/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  THE LARGEST EVENT WAS A C5/SF
EVENT FROM NEW REGION 8967 (N20E66).  REGIONS 8963 (N16W04), AND
8959 (S15W62) PRODUCED SEVERAL MINOR C-CLASS EVENTS.  NEW REGIONS
8967, AND 8968 (S13E28) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE.  ONE PERIOD OF ISOLATED
ACTIVE CONDITIONS WAS OBSERVED FROM 19/1500-1800Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH PERIODS OF
ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 20 APR-22 APR
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           19 APR 168
PREDICTED   20 APR-22 APR  170/175/180
90 DAY MEAN        19 APR 183
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 APR  005/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 APR  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 APR-22 APR  010/015-008/012-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 20 APR-22 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/25/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/35/25
MINOR STORM           20/20/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01