Art Stephenson’s February 8, 2000 Speech
FAA 3rd Annual Commercial Space Launch Forecast Conference
Pentagon City Best Western Hotel
Opening
Ladies and gentleman and honored guests, I am pleased to be here this afternoon and am honored to
represent NASA, the Marshall Space Flight Center and our many partners in discussing the
Administration’s Space Launch Initiative. I’m very pleased to be here today to elaborate on
NASA’s efforts in working with private industry and other Federal agencies to revolutionize space
transportation.
The issues associated with the current space launch industry have been summarized well in earlier
talks today – especially the comments of Dr. Neal Lane who discussed with you the recent launch
failures and near term recovery efforts, as well as the results of the launch range review. These
efforts are aimed at fixing immediate problems, improving cooperation and will assure continued
access to space for critical National Security, Civil and commercial missions. However, these
efforts will be unable to provide the dramatic breakthroughs necessary to realize NASA’s goals for
safe, reliable and affordable space transportation systems.
We have expensive systems that limit our civil space efforts in science and exploration. We have
an aging fleet that is based, in many cases, on decades-old technology. We have overseas
competition that has grown fierce as new foreign vehicles have entered the commercial market. The
Administration’s Space Launch Initiative will directly target these problems.
As you are aware, these problems are not new and were highlighted by the President in the National
Space Transportation Policy of 1994. In that policy, the Administration assigned NASA the lead
role for developing Reusable Launch Systems technologies and we initiated investments aimed at
dramatically improving the cost and reliability of getting to space. The Nation set forth a goal of
working toward a new Reusable Launch Vehicle, or RLV, that would be commercially developed
and operated in support of civil, commercial, and defense missions.
NASA, working with our industrial partners, initiated several efforts including the X-33, X-34, X-37
and Advanced Space Transportation programs. These investments were focused on developing
and proving key technological advances for RLV systems. We invested in specific concepts based
on the premise that major growth in the commercial launch market would enable significant private
financing of a new RLV, once the technology and business risks were reduced. We partnered
heavily with industry and pursued aggressive technology programs aimed at pushing the state-of-the
art. We aimed at breaking paradigms related to the management and operations of launch system
programs.
Through that process we have made substantial progress in understanding future space
transportation requirements and have gained great insight into promising, emerging technologies.
We better understand the balance between commercial and government interests. However, we
have also encountered difficult lessons and we are now experiencing delays in key technology
projects. Our collective efforts have advanced needed technological breakthroughs but have also
shown that significant risks remain. For example, we currently have four U.S. rocket engines in
American test stands that will demonstrate significant cost reductions and longer life than any other
engines we have ever built. However, additional work in developing higher design margins, longer
life, and improved operability is necessary to bring these new engines into routine operation.
Additional work is also required to take these advances to the next level and achieve NASA’s safety
and cost goals.
We have learned that emerging technologies will enable the needed advancements but also that
more development along multiple, competing paths is needed. We have learned that working
requirements diligently and working them in partnership with industry will allow us to better
converge with commercial capabilities. We have learned that commercial markets are not growing
as previously projected but there are still possibilities in the near-term to pursue alternate paths that
can make our access to space more robust.
The goal of transitioning NASA’s space transportation needs to commercial launch vehicles
remains the key goal of our efforts and will require additional investment to reduce business and
technical risks to acceptable levels. The Space Launch Initiative recognizes these facts and provides
the additional resources required to push forward, reach our safety and affordability goals, and bring
forth the promise of a new age.
We want to:
and
Improvements in the safety, reliability and affordability of current and future space transportation
systems must be achieved if NASA is to perform its mission and if the U.S. space industry is to
reach its full commercial potential. Thus, the Administration, NASA and the space launch industry
will implement a three-point strategy to support these goals:
by commercial vehicles alone; and
operated, Earth-to-orbit RLVs by 2005;
orbit launch vehicles to meet NASA-unique requirements that cannot be economically served
Station needs on commercial launch vehicles.
The Space Launch Initiative is part of a larger NASA effort to strategically link decisions on Space
Shuttle safety investments, Crew Return Vehicle, 3rd Generation space transportation technology.
I’d like to take the next few minutes to talk about the specifics of the Space Launch Initiative and
some of the elements of our overall, integrated strategy.
Space Launch Initiative
The Space Shuttle is the first generation reusable launch system and represents only a part of what
is possible in space. NASA’s strategic plan and the promise of commercial opportunity in space
requires dramatic and sustained breakthroughs in the safety, reliability and affordability of future
systems. Future systems must be considerably safer and more reliable to operate than current
expendable rockets and must focus on performance and simplicity through smart design and proven
technology to bring costs down. Some US and foreign rockets used today fail between 1 and 10% of
the time. NASA believes that we must work to reduce that to far less than 0.1%. While improving
safety, NASA also believes that we must work to bring down cost, from the many thousands of
dollars per pound it costs to launch payloads today. So, the Administration and NASA remain
focused on reducing the risks associated with developing a 2nd generation RLV that meets these
requirement and will invest in a competitive program to initiate full-scale development by the end
of 2005.
The Space Launch Initiative funds 2nd generation risk reduction activities at $ 4.5 billion over five
years [$290 million in FY 2001, ramping up to $1.3 billion per year in FY 2004 and FY 2005].
This more than a doubles the $2 billion five-year total that was included as a placeholder in the
President’s FY 2000 Budget. These investments will enable a focused program for 2nd Generation
RLV risk reduction and efforts to enable commercial launch services to the International Space
Station. These programs will be referred to as the 2nd Generation RLV program and the Alternate
Access program.
As I previously stated, the 2nd Generation RLV program goal is to substantially reduce the technical,
programmatic and business risks associated with developing a safe, reliable and affordable 2nd
Generation RLV architecture. The program will invest in the technology development and
demonstration, business and program planning, design and advanced development efforts to enable
at least two competitive options for a new RLV architecture. Our specific goals are to improve the
safety of a 2nd generation system by two orders of magnitude – equivalent to a crew risk of 1 in
10,000 missions – and decrease the cost tenfold to approximately $1000 per pound of payload.
To do this, NASA believes that a 2nd generation RLV architecture will consist of commercially
developed and operated launch vehicles combined with government unique hardware. The
integrated architecture will be designed to meet NASA’s future mission requirements and to greatly
improve U.S. leadership in the space launch industry. The Agency will leverage the success and
progress of our on-going space transportation programs to further reduce the remaining technical
and programmatic risks but will specifically focus on creating a competitive environment.
Competition is the fuel for innovation and the driver for efficiency, and it is critical to our strategy.
We will pursue risk reduction efforts that will enable at least two competing architectures with a
goal of maximizing the opportunity for commercially competitive and privately owned and operated
systems.
When we talk of competition and full-scale development this does not mean that NASA intends to
“down-select” to a single winner. Rather, if the market can support more than one new RLV, we
hope to develop an architecture that can benefit from multiple commercial providers integrating
their systems with NASA and other government unique assets. We have designed a plan that will
enable sustained competition through 2005 and a plan that will directly attack high priority
technology risk areas. Our industry partners have told us that addressing safety and reliability will
result in affordable systems. They have told us that we must focus on crew safety; propulsion;
large, integrated airframes; and critical subsystem technologies before they can move forward. Our
plan addresses these needs. We believe that numerous options should be considered and we will
support industry’s best ideas – whether they are single stage or multi-stage launch systems.
Through the Space Transportation Architecture Studies, NASA has worked closely with industry to
better understand the basic requirements that must be addressed for a 2nd Generation RLV. This has
set the stage but is insufficient to move forward with the major investments that I am talking about
today. Therefore, NASA will spend the rest of this fiscal year working with industry and other
Federal agencies, performing rigorous trade studies and focused systems engineering efforts to
define higher fidelity requirements. We will investigate options for developing and demonstrating
technologies that support alternate architectures and best validate these requirements. NASA is
specifically asking our industry partners to challenge every requirement and to define innovative
architecture options. We are striving to maximize the convergence between government and
commercial requirements and continue our push toward commercialization and competing launch
services. We will trade and refine our requirements to enable commercial launch service solutions
to the fullest extent possible.
Moving into FY 2001, NASA will begin new risk reduction efforts based on the established
requirements. We have not made decisions on the complete nature of these activities but expect a
continued mix of ground and flight demonstrations. We ask that our industry partners not tell us
what they think we want to hear, but rather, tell us what risk reduction activities they need to
undertake to best compete in 2005. Our investments will be driven by industry need and we will
add more competition and an increased emphasis on requirements. The Space Launch Initiative
also provides for directed risk reduction activities for NASA-unique systems. One area that we will
be focusing on is the role of a Crew Return Vehicle in an overall architecture. We plan to continue
CRV development but will make decisions in 2003 on whether we should build a vehicle that could
fulfill more functions than just crew return. We will be marshalling significant resources for this
undertaking but will need to remain focused on these kinds of critical decision points to achieve our
goals.
2nd Generation RLV will also be the application test bed for Intelligence Synthesis Environment
(ISE) capabilities. ISE efforts will develop and implement a new age of engineering tools and
capabilities and use these tools to better integrate and manage the program. Specific plans for ISE
are in development and will continue to be developed throughout the year.
The President’s policies asked for decisions on how to proceed with development of a 2nd
generation RLV in 2000. With the Space Launch Initiative, we have made the decision to continue
more aggressively toward our goals and have developed a robust strategy for getting us there.
Alternate Access to Space Station
In addition to the 2nd generation RLV technical risk reduction activities, the Space Launch Initiative
also includes focused investment for near-term alternative access to the Space Station. The
Administration and NASA are interested in enabling commercially provided launch alternatives for
spares and other cargo and logistics materials to the Station. There are several important reasons to
pursue alternative access to the Station:
Shuttle launch stand-downs or potential shortfalls by international partners,
The Alternate Access Program is a new start and will be funded with over $300 million dollars over
the next five years. This program offers the opportunity to develop the unique technologies, system
designs and innovative procurement mechanisms for the space launch and proximity operations
elements of an alternate access system. NASA has begun initial efforts to define the requirements
and options for alternate access and will solicit formal studies from industry in the next few months.
We will work to assure proper integration of the Alternate Access program with 2nd Generation
RLV activities. We will study the common elements and treat the alternate systems within the
context of an integrated architecture. However, this program offers a unique opportunity for launch
companies to find near term, commercial application for their systems. It also provides a potential
opportunity to marry commercial interest in orbiting transfer vehicles with Space Station proximity
operations requirements and may hold other similar opportunities that can offer mutual benefit to
industry and NASA.
The Alternate Access program is yet another example of how NASA is moving to commercial
systems for our launch needs.
Space Shuttle Safety Investments
Our number one value at NASA is safety. Part of our commitment to safety is to ensure that the
Space Shuttle is increasingly reliable for as long as it may fly. Until an effective alternative is
demonstrated, NASA will continue to rely on the outstanding capabilities of the world’s first and
only reusable space transportation vehicle. The Administration is committed to the continued, safe
operation of the Space Shuttle. It is a high priority to assure the Shuttle’s ability to support
assembly and operations of the International Space Station. The Space Shuttle system also provides
flexible and capable transportation capabilities that we will rely on throughout the next decade.
Investments in Shuttle safety improvements have been made over the last several years and we have
cut the risk of flying the shuttle in half. At the same time, the Shuttle budget has been reduced by
about a third through efficiencies and contract consolidation. Having achieved these reductions,
continued improvements in Shuttle safety will require additional investment. Therefore, the
Administration has augmented the NASA budget with investments that will continue to
significantly improve safety and protect the nation’s investment in the Station and Shuttle.
There are two elements to the increase in Shuttle safety funding. First, the President’s FY 2001
budget request includes a $300 million increase through FY 2005 for additional personnel at
NASA’s Human Space Flight centers to ensure that the right skills and staffing levels are in place to
launch and assemble the Station. Second, a $1.9 billion “Safety Allocation” is made to address
Shuttle safety improvements through hardware/software upgrades, personnel, facility, or other
investments. This is a $1.4 billion increase over last year’s $500 million, five-year budget for
upgrades.
NASA will be conducting an external review to assess how these funds can most effectively be used
to improve the safety of the Space Shuttle. NASA will proceed with the three highest priority
upgrade activities, and additional activities may be started pending results of the external review.
The three highest priority upgrades include two with firm plans: the electric auxiliary power unit
(EAPU), and advanced health monitoring for the Space Shuttle main engines (SSME’s). These two
upgrades alone will improve Shuttle safety during ascent from a 1 in 483 chance of catastrophic
failure to 1 in 735. The third of the highest priority upgrades, which is still under study, is for
improved avionics in the Shuttle cockpit. This will improve the situational awareness of the crew,
and better equip them to handle potential flight anomalies. NASA is also investigating additional
investments such as a new Combustion Chamber and channel-wall nozzle for the Shuttle Main
Engines, an electrical replacement for a hydrazine-fueled pump system on the Solid Rocket Booster
(SRB), redesigned solid propellant grain geometry to reduce manual inspections and repairs, and
upgrades to the SRB attach/hold-down hardware. These and other options are expected to reduce
flight risks to nearly 1 in 1000. As part of the agency’s overall strategy, we have set a goal of
completing any new Shuttle safety upgrades by 2005 so a large number of Shuttle flights can
benefit from those investments.
Space Shuttle safety investments are an important element of NASA’s integrated space
transportation strategy. Our program will provide the best assurance for continued safe Shuttle
operations through this decade, and into the next decade, if needed.
3rd Generation RLV’s – SpaceLiner 100
Finally, I would like to discuss our efforts to assure long-term, improved space access beyond the
2nd generation space launch initiative I discussed earlier.
Our 2nd generation goals are the first step to our future but more aggressive improvements in safety
and affordability are required if we are to truly achieve routine access to space. Systems that have
the potential to bring down launch costs by a factor of 100 will have many of the attributes of
today’s aircraft fleets. Safety and reliability are critical elements to any successful aircraft
operation; such will also be the case for a 3rd generation space launch fleet. In developing far-term
technologies for 3rd generation vehicles, NASA will concentrate on safety, reliability and margin.
3rd generation systems, referred to by NASA as SpaceLiner 100, will emphasize safety first, which
will, in turn, drive down cost. In order to achieve our ambitious safety goals, we must incorporate a
safety-based design philosophy from the outset – safety cannot be added on after the fact. Our goal
is to provide an additional two orders of magnitude improvement in safety with systems capable of
$100 per pound of payload within 25 years. This safety goal is equal to one in one million chance of
catastrophic failure.
SpaceLiner 100 technologies and derived systems must be inherently reliable, functionally
redundant wherever practical and designed to minimize or eliminate catastrophic failure modes.
Design will have to minimize the opportunity for human or vehicle error through automated vehicle
health monitoring and management. In the event of a vehicle failure, a separate, reliable means of
personnel survival must be provided. Similar to the computer revolution, we will strive for
operational simplicity while gaining dramatic improvements in capability.
In a 3rd generation RLV, reliability could be improved through performance and reduced
performance variability. This increase in performance margin will be available, for example, by
increasing engine performance through combined rocket and air-breathing propulsion or through
rocket engines that are 3 times lighter that today’s Space Shuttle Main Engine. Margin may also be
made available through the use of other off-board energy sources that would provide a ground level
launch assist. These technologies are the basis of our 3rd generation investments.
To support these investments, the Administration has provided $1.2 billion over the next five years
for the Advanced Space Transportation Program, a $200 million increase over last year’s plan. The
budget provides funds for earth-to-orbit, in-space, interstellar, and other advanced transportation
system research areas. These investments will build on our recent efforts and will take advantage of
synergy with the Agency’s aeronautics research to build a balanced and aggressive Advanced Space
Transportation program. We have already made dramatic breakthroughs in the testing of rocket
based combined cycle engine concepts and are advancing multiple other research areas including
magnetic levitation launch assist, advanced thermal protection systems, vehicle health management,
and numerous in-space transportation system technologies. For example, we have successfully
demonstrated through test, two RBCC flowpath designs from Mach zero to eight. We have also
demonstrated for the first time ever, the transition from all-rocket to ramjet operation. We don’t
believe that we will need to wait 25 years before we see the benefits of this effort. We will
other important programs.
Closing
In closing, I’d like to emphasize once again that the Administration’s overarching policy on space is
to take advantage of the synergies among the U.S. civil, commercial, and national security space
sectors. We at NASA will continue in these efforts with a balanced program of investment. The
Space Shuttle will be improved through focused safety investments as we aggressively push to 2nd
and 3rd generation systems that will provide untold opportunity for the scientific exploration of
space. We will work in close collaboration with private industry to maximize the opportunities for
commercial launch services and will create an environment of increased competition. We will offer
near term opportunity for alternate commercial launch vehicle delivery of cargo to the Space
Station.
The President’s Science Advisor said earlier today, “I believe that this Space Launch Initiative will
ultimately prove to have as profound an impact on the future of space exploration and commerce as
anything we have ever attempted as a nation.” I wholeheartedly agree with him and am very
excited about this initiative. You should be as well.
As the Center Director of the Marshall Space Flight Center, I have been charged with leading these
programs, working closely with all of NASA’s Centers and I look forward to working with all of
you to enable the future of America’s space launch industry which in turn will enable NASA’s
future.
Thank you!
