Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (11 Oct, 12 Oct, 13 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 697 km/s at 10/0636Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 09/2135Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 10/0521Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 518 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (11 Oct, 12 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (13 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Oct 068
Predicted 11 Oct-13 Oct 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 10 Oct 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Oct 011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct 006/005-006/005-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/15
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 10/05/25